Just wondering….

Chris Anderson is on such the wrong track about energy security.

He does get the idea of reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled. Anything we can do to reduce the miles that need to be traveled to accomplish a task will lead to energy security and independence.

Man, oh, man …but…everything else…. thumbs down…..

1. EU’s policy on GMO was driven by the choice of its *people* (as in a democracy lets its people decide). Or does Chris now believe that you should not be allowed to decide what kinds of food you eat?
2. Africa doesn’t want GMO because they don’t want to have to pay Monsanto to grow crops that African farmers have grown for centuries. African farmers like most indigenous farmers save seed from one crop to start the next. GMO seed from Monsanto means that those farmers have to pay for the privilege of what they have done for free for generations. In a case in Canada — a farmer was accused by Monsanto of ’stealing’ their corn seed because the GMO Monsanto corn had cross-pollinated with his corn stock. Whether or not you believe the defendant farmer is immaterial. Why would Africans be stupid enough to make let Monsanto, et.al. control their food supply?
3. Africa is the original source for barley (13 or so subspecies). Coming in with a GMO pollutes the seed stock. To see what I mean just google for “GMO Corn pollution”.
4. Blaming environmentalists for the lack of LNG terminals is just wrong. Most people don’t want to have an LNG terminal anywhere near them because if an LNG tanker is ever successfully attacked (and its already been attempted) everyone with waterside property will be crispy. There is a reason the Coast Guard establishes a 2 mile security zone in front, 1 mile behind, and 500 yards on either side of an LNG ship.
5. Natural Gas is another fossil fuel that is running out. Its prices are going up for the same reason that oil in general is going up … increased demand.
6. Corn prices have shot up because the US has decided that it would be a good idea to burn our food in our cars in the form of ethanol rather than eat it.
7. Our agriculture is a very fossil fuel intensive endeavor. Fertilizers are made from fossil fuels. Farmers use fossil fuel hungry tractors and equipment. The food is grown thousand of miles away from where it is consumed. And lastly, meat production is even more intensive as it takes all that fossil fuel in the form of corn and then feeds it to cattle. So we should not be surprised that fossil fuel prices sky-rocketing results in high food prices.
8. Nuclear — No nuclear power plants are being built because the economics simply are not there. Nuclear power plants come in only one size — extra large. Power companies are trying to adjust their production with the demand. A nuclear power plant is a decade-long bet on a huge increase in demand. This is a very dangerous bet that no sane energy executive will make. California has shown that it is possible to reduce per-capita energy consumption without severe noticeable economic issues. California has been doing this for decades (even before the Enron fiasco). So an energy executive has got to decide today that in 2018 electrical demand is going to be so high that any advances in solar, wind, geothermal + any advances in energy efficiency is going to justify an all-or-nothing bet on a nuclear power plant.
9. Nuclear — any nuclear power plant needs an enriched power source. More nuclear power plants means more incentive for other less stable nations to decide they want their own nuclear power plant — which of course makes it easier for nuclear fuel to fall into the wrong hands. Do you think it is a great idea for nuclear technology to be spread everywhere?
10. Nuclear — There really isn’t that much uranium in the world. And as this article explains most uranium comes from …. other countries. So once again our energy security would be out of our control!

Here is what the “Reason” Foundation says about High Speed Rail:

If you don’t want to read the whole thing:

• a Highway project in Massachusetts ended up cost more money than planned for — as we all know highway projects always cost way too much.
• the US can’t get off its ass and build anything faster than the Acela. (at a time when the French have tested a train that could beat a plane flying the JFK-LAX route)
• the California HSR route is longer than the Acela line and somehow that means the percentage market capture should be smaller — because as we all know people take High-Speed Rail to get to their neighbor’s house or their kitchen.
• Apparently the species of homo sapiens (homo sillius?) that lives in the US is different than the species living in Japan and Europe — so therefore anything that other species does does not apply to homo sillius.
• High-Speed Rail apparently is supposed to compete against Greyhound on a price basis and against planes based on time. I didn’t realize that the business bus traveler was such an important target market.
• All that stuff in the latest Star Trek movie — you know …. those cool transporters that instantly zap you from place to place … are already in place. Those transporters will be used to instantly zap you out of your house, past airport security to your airline seat. Travelers will not have to arrive at the airport 2 hours before their flight. At the other end, the transporters will get travelers from LAX to where they really want to be. This will keep that airline flight of 80 min time competitive with a 150min HSR trip. The bad news is that sometimes TSA regulations result in you arriving unclothed because TSA needs to send your clothes for “extra screening”. Hospital gowns will be provided while you are waiting for your clothes to catch up. Remember the adage to deal with stage fright “Imagine your audience is wearing no clothes?” well now you will not have to imagine…
• Businesses survive by satisfying the “homo consumius” species. politicians survive by satisfying the “homo votius” species. Once again, new subspecies that our high school textbooks sadly have failed to document.
• Bonds are a bad idea. investment is a bad idea.

Offered without comment (but lots of laughter!) (comment 55) :

Most Esteemed Santa Clara County Voter,

Please allow me to introduce myself. My name is Mbaike Ngorongoro Guardino IV. I am an agent acting on behalf of my patrons, a group comprised of many esteemed personages including Mr. Matumbo McEnery who descends from a glorious line dating back to the great Mnorman Nmineta.

I am most humbly and respectfully requesting your assistance in a matter that may be of some mutual fiduciary beneficience. Please indulge me in your kind patients as I explain to you the situation.

We are eager to show to the rest of the world that our kingdom is a world class kingdom comparable in importance to the great kingdoms of LALand and SFLand.

Several years ago my benefactors, through some very clever dealings called Measure A, were able to begin acquiring a considerable stream of revenue with which it was their desire to provide the people with a transportation system that would be the envy of the world. These funds have now grown to a generous amount (USD $8,000,000,000) and a prosperous community called VTA has grown and flourished.

Due to a temporary problem of liquidity, the magnificent transportation system has not yet lived up to it’s promise but there is at present, a new opportunity for my patrons’ dreams to be realized. All that is required is access to your bank account.

Please sir, or madam, whichever the case may be. It is essencial that you take advantage of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Please try to persuade your friends and neighbors too unless they know anything about math or history. Avoid these people. They are often what my people call “mnaysayers”.

Please respond with your bank account number by voting YES.

Humbly and Respectfully,
Mr. Mbaike Ngorongoro Guardino IV

Normally I report this kind of stuff as spam but I think this time it’s different. This guy sounds so nice. He seems so genuine. He really does sound as though he has MY best interest at heart. I think I WILL vote for that sales tax increase.
Posted by John Galt in San Jose

Top-speed: 574.8 kmh (357.16 mph) for the train (V150) in the video.

Amtrak sucks and the U.S. has no idea what trains could do.

Some perspective: New York to Los Angeles: 2792 miles.

View Larger Map

Time for the V150 - 7h 48min. Remember it does not have to stop for anything (Does not need fuel).

Flight time today - assuming no delays (haha) :

But lets talk about delays. Go here to see what the delays are today. On July 30, 2008 — every single airport was experiencing major delays. There were no exceptions. On my recent flight from San Francisco to Austin, Tx, we were delayed by over 2 hours because of a little bit of ground fog.

Its time to recognize that trains can compete with planes everywhere connected by land (or Chunnel).

Mattel is worth more than GM:

GM’s current market value is smaller than that of Mattel Inc., maker of Matchbox cars, and a 10th of what it was in 2000. A Merrill Lynch analyst said [July 2, 2008] that a GM “bankruptcy is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate.” Merrill downgraded the stock to “underperform” from “buy.” The price was the lowest since 1954 adjusted for splits.

Irony.

Continuing:

GM may bring the production version of the Chevrolet Beat to the U.S., people familiar with the plan said. The car, which would normally be reserved for markets such as Asia and Latin America, gets as much as 40 miles a gallon, a fuel efficiency topped in the U.S. only by hybrids.

Besides the Beat, GM is weighing a list of options for refocusing its auto lineup on fuel efficiency rather than performance. They include the U.S. introduction of a small pickup popular in Latin America and an expansion of the number of versions of the Volt plug-in electric car, the people said.

GM is also trying to increase production and speed up availability of the successor to the Chevy Cobalt sedan and develop a fuel-efficient alternative to the Cadillac Escalade sport-utility vehicle, they said.

About flippin’ time!

I want to quote practically the entire article it is just so funny!

Bryan Carisone, a heating and air-conditioning contractor in Raritan, N.J., “absolutely loves” his new GMC Denali XL. But in June, one week after he bought it, he pulled into a station on a near-empty tank and watched the total climb higher and higher — to $109.

“It just about killed me,” Mr. Carisone said.

Well that’s love for you … a fickle beast!

For decades, the $100 barrel stood as a hypothetical outlier in doom-and-gloom conversations about future oil prices. And nobody could even imagine an American family paying $100 to fill the tank.

“Nobody”? Oh, I guess you just meant people like DEMOCRAT Rep. John “Denial” Dingell (D-MI) and Former Senator Carl Levin (D-MI). But who knows maybe the automobile industry will accept reality?

But the future is here. Oil passed $100 a barrel in January and now seems headed toward $150 a barrel. Gasoline prices surpassed $4 a gallon on June 8, stalled for a while, and have been rising again in recent days, setting a record Saturday.

Well that’s what happens with the dollar in the toilet. China and India becoming economic powerhouses with lots of cars. Living the American dream!

By late spring, owners of pickups and sport utility vehicles with 30-gallon tanks, like the Cadillac Escalade ESV and Chevrolet Suburban, started paying $100 or more to fill a near-empty tank. As gas prices continue to rise — the national average stood at about $4.10 a gallon Saturday — membership in the triple-digit club is growing. Now, even not-so-gargantuan Toyota Land Cruisers and GMC Yukons can cost $100 to fill up.

But still incredibly oversized.

During the first five months of 2008, about 11 percent of American drivers said they bought 24 gallons or more at their last fill-up, according to a survey of 81,000 drivers by the NPD Group, a market research firm — which at today’s prices would place many of them at or around $100.

Just think what it is going to look like with case at $7/gallon. Oh By the way — In England drivers pay $12-$15/gallon.

For people who love their big vehicles, the pain is acute.

Good. Probably about as acute as the pain the rest of us feel when we get hit by these overstuffed monsters.

Members of the Chevy Avalanche Fan Club of North America prize the Avalanche, a large sport utility vehicle, for its versatility, including a rear cab wall that slides forward for a larger pickup bed or backward for more passenger room.

With the extra pollution option included at no additional charge!

But the Avalanche also has a 31-gallon tank, which would cost $127 to fill at Saturday’s national average price. Even the truck’s most dedicated fans find that galling. David H. Obelcz, who founded the club in 2002 and is still a member of the board, sold his Avalanche because he could not afford gasoline for it.

Reality sucks. Oh I am sorry - might those treehuggers have been right? Who hates CAFE now?
Oh the sweet, sweet, delicious irony!

Thirty members of the fan club’s Arizona chapter used to attend off-roading and other events three times a month. But now that Avalanche owners pay more than $100 per tank, the club is lucky to attract 10 members once every two months, said Eric Tolliver, a chapter leader.

So does that mean you are not going to be tearing up BLM lands as much — I got to love that!

Eric Laugen, a firefighter in Seattle, is administrator of the Chevy Avalanche Fan Club of North America. For a trip to Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, he wanted to drive his truck because it has enough room for his fishing and camera gear, as well as space in the back to sleep. But he rode his motorcycle instead. That means pitching a tent every night, and no fishing.

“I looked at how much gas would cost in the Avalanche. It just doesn’t make sense anymore.”

Did it ever?

Hummer clubs are hurting, too. In Nebraska, Ric Hines of the Omaha Hummer Owner Group — known as Omahog — stopped doing off-road trips this summer and started riding his recumbent bicycle instead.

“Omahog” — what an appropriate name. “Hog” as in “hogging resource for yourself without caring about others”. But all the way to a bicycle — not bad!

Mark R. Price, founder of the Illiana Hummer Club in the Chicago area, owns three Hummer H1s, which get about eight miles per gallon. “A lot of our members won’t travel 70 miles just to support a parade anymore,” Mr. Price said. “People wait for something a little closer.”

Shit man - sell one of the H1-s. Bet the scrap metal value of those would get you at least 2-3 gallons of gas for the other 2 Hummers.

Families that were accustomed to the convenience of sport utility vehicles are having to cut back as well. Colleen Hammond of Chagrin Falls, Ohio, loves packing her three kids and all their soccer gear into her 2000 GMC Yukon XL. But she hates paying $160 to fill the 38.5-gallon tank.

Newsflash-lady. It doesn’t it is still over $100/tank. Why don’t you just get something reasonable with a roof rack?

Last month, she parked the Yukon in her driveway and borrowed her friend’s Toyota Land Cruiser.

Her friend should just make Colleen sell the Yukon XL and buy the Land Cruiser. Driving is more than just gas. Its tires, insurance, oil, and maintenance. Maybe Colleen could follow Angela Eversole or Kelli Stille’s fine example?

Steve Burtch bought a Dodge Ram truck last year, when gas cost $3.75, because he thought gas prices had peaked and would start coming down. Instead, he pumped his first $100 tank in June. “I don’t know how much longer I’m going to be able to keep this up,” said Mr. Burtch, 43, who lives in Marion, Ohio.

ROTFL. Tough it out. Be a man! Who’s the boss? You or the oil companies? Mano a mano in the ring, you can do it! Don’t quit now!

Edmunds.com compiled sales data showing that in the last seven model years, Americans have bought 25.4 million vehicles with tanks 24 gallons or larger — the point at which three figures is now a real possibility. A few big trucks and sport utility vehicles have tanks exceeding 30 gallons.

What is the scrap-metal value of those big boys?

But people who try to pump $100 worth of gas often find that they cannot, since most pumps that take credit cards shut off at $75 to prevent someone with insufficient funds or a stolen credit card from running off with gas. In addition, some older pumps still are not capable of registering triple-digit bills.

And just a few months ago we were talking about older pumps (or should we call them “wallet siphons”), not being able to handle gas priced above $3.99/gallon.

“The bill was $104.98, which was a real shock,” said Mr. Chamberlain, 71, of Marion, Ohio. “I never thought I’d see the day.”

Bet you vote Republican and thought the Iraq War would give you more of the sweet, sweet, light sweet crude-didn’t you?

BioFuels. Do you want to eat or drive?

Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75% — far more than previously estimated — according to a confidential World Bank report obtained by the Guardian. The damning unpublished assessment is based on the most detailed analysis of the crisis so far, carried out by an internationally-respected economist at global financial body.

Considering Americans and their cars - I suspect drive.

An open letter to the people who want to burn gas wantonly:

Do you complain about how you can’t buy the refrigerator you want because of those EnergyStar ratings? Do you feel like you have to setting for a smaller refrigerator? A refrigerator that doesn’t keep your meat and milk as safe?

Why not? Refrigerator manufacturers have been repeatedly forced to increase their energy efficiency. Yet no one seems to miss those sweet 1950’s turbo iceboxes of yesteryear.

All CAFE is is EnergyStar for cars. Just like with refrigerators — the good manufacturers will rise to the challenge and the rest will die.

Detroit had their warning in the late 70’s I lived in Michigan then. 25% unemployment in Flint, MI. No one would take checks. Foreclosures. Crime. A local Great Depression.

Honda, a motorcycle manufacturer, came out with the Honda Civic. My family brought one and drove it south to visit my grandparents. (If you can imagine 5 people in a car the size of a Honda Fit - my yongest sister was on my mom’s lap!)

My grandpa worked as a draftsman for 30 some years at Chrysler. My grandpa said (and this is in the 70’s), “This is the future - Detroit should be building these cars. They are dying and they just don’t know it yet”.

CAFE won’t kill Detroit. CAFE will shake up Detroit and challenge them to improve their product.

Expanding on my comment over here:

This is the reason why contrary to years past - the airlines may be very open to the idea of running the HSR system as a substitute for running the competing planes. At the plane ticket prices they will need to charge + the airport delays driving LA-SF is nearly competitive with flying LAX-SFO.

For medium/short-range “flights” airlines will have the choice of running the trains or relinquishing big portions of their revenue. The airlines will face mounting issues jsut with fuel cost. Keep in mind that aviation fuel by international convention is not taxed. As the realities of Global Warming kick in - this will have to change. Aviation fuel will have to be taxed in proportion to its contribution to Global Warming.

I suspect that passenger travel is going to follow a modal separation model that we see with freight. In freight, short/medium-haul is dominated by trucks. Trucks’ ability to pick-up/deliver closer to the source/destination dominates over the fuel costs. In long-haul/bulk trains have the cost advantage because fuel cost start to dominate.

With passengers, trains/cars should dominate because both have the ability to pick-up/deliver their cargo (passengers) closer to the original source/destination. (City centers or people’s houses).

This leads to an interesting stock picking question: is there an airline/railroad out there that is looking to become an integrated transportation company (i.e. airline + rail + truck)? Considering the difference in the various cultures I suspect that this company will emerge but will be formed from the ground up with the exception of the railroad piece. I make the exception on the railroad people because of the interesting scheduling requirements that come from not being able to reorder trains (limited ability to pass!). But the railroading knowledge could come from the shortlines not the Class Is. Short line railroads have had to think innovative and in customer service intensive ways that the Class I’s have traditionally ignored. Norfolk Southern may be an exception to this.

Quite simply BART-to-SFO has major fatal, permanent flaws:

1. route time is not competitive. During the early morning rush taking a Baby Bullet train from points south of Millbrae to 4th and King with a transfer to Muni is faster. I did this for a year before Baby Bullet service started. Also there are express buses that take Caltrain riders to places like Fort Mason. Caltrain-to-Muni is more of a timed transfer. Caltrain-to-BART does not offer a timed connection and there is a lot of sitting around waiting.
2. Transferring to BART is more expensive. Caltrain-Muni combination offers monthly pass discount. BART has no monthly pass.
3. Getting to the airport is now much harder than before BART.

To expand on the last point on the difficulty of getting to SFO now. Lets compare the before and after picture:

Before BART:

1. Get off Caltrain at Millbrae
2. Get on (free) bus waiting for each Caltrain. The bus waited for you to shlep your luggage into the bus.
3. Passengers were dropped directly off at their airline terminal.
4. Unload bus.

Passengers did not have to go up and down at all with luggage and screaming kids.

Compare that to now:

1. Get off Caltrain at Millbrae.
2. Drag luggage (and kids!) to elevator #1.
3. Wait for elevator #1.
4. Load luggage into the elevator #1. (”Stop pushing the buttons!”)
5. Unload elevator #1
6. Buy BART ticket. (Hassle with change and bills)
7. Drag luggage through BART gate #1.
8. Drag luggage to elevator #2.
9. Wait for elevator #2.
10. Load luggage into the elevator #2. (”I said, ‘Stop pushing the buttons’, Rose!”)
11. Unload elevator #2
12. Drag luggage to BART train #1.
13. Wait for doors.
14. Drag luggage into BART train #1.
15. Unload luggage from BART train #1 at San Bruno.
16. Drag luggage to BART train #2. (less than a minute to do this with kids..go,go,go!) (damn missed it!)
17. (wait 15 min for next train)
18. Wait for doors.
19. Drag luggage into BART train #2.
20. Unload luggage from BART train #2 (at SFO) ( “Are we there yet!”)
21. Drag luggage through BART gate #2.
22. Drag luggage to elevator #3.
23. Wait for elevator #3.
24. Load luggage into the elevator #3. (”I said, ‘Stop pushing the buttons’!”)
25. Unload elevator #3 (”Honey, are you wearing deodorant?”)
26. Drag luggage to SFO people mover (Do we have the Xmas spirit yet?)
27. Wait for doors.
28. Drag luggage into SFO people mover.
29. Unload luggage from SFO people mover.
30. Drag luggage to elevator #4.
31. Wait for elevator #4.
32. Load luggage into the elevator #4. (”I said, ‘Stop pushing the buttons’!”)
33. Unload elevator #4

Update: This is what “stupid” looks like on a map:

View Larger Map

Be sure to thank Quentin Kopp and Mike Nevin the people responsible for the mess.

Any questions?