Just wondering….

Chris Anderson is on such the wrong track about energy security.

He does get the idea of reducing Vehicle Miles Traveled. Anything we can do to reduce the miles that need to be traveled to accomplish a task will lead to energy security and independence.

Man, oh, man …but…everything else…. thumbs down…..

1. EU’s policy on GMO was driven by the choice of its *people* (as in a democracy lets its people decide). Or does Chris now believe that you should not be allowed to decide what kinds of food you eat?
2. Africa doesn’t want GMO because they don’t want to have to pay Monsanto to grow crops that African farmers have grown for centuries. African farmers like most indigenous farmers save seed from one crop to start the next. GMO seed from Monsanto means that those farmers have to pay for the privilege of what they have done for free for generations. In a case in Canada — a farmer was accused by Monsanto of ’stealing’ their corn seed because the GMO Monsanto corn had cross-pollinated with his corn stock. Whether or not you believe the defendant farmer is immaterial. Why would Africans be stupid enough to make let Monsanto, et.al. control their food supply?
3. Africa is the original source for barley (13 or so subspecies). Coming in with a GMO pollutes the seed stock. To see what I mean just google for “GMO Corn pollution”.
4. Blaming environmentalists for the lack of LNG terminals is just wrong. Most people don’t want to have an LNG terminal anywhere near them because if an LNG tanker is ever successfully attacked (and its already been attempted) everyone with waterside property will be crispy. There is a reason the Coast Guard establishes a 2 mile security zone in front, 1 mile behind, and 500 yards on either side of an LNG ship.
5. Natural Gas is another fossil fuel that is running out. Its prices are going up for the same reason that oil in general is going up … increased demand.
6. Corn prices have shot up because the US has decided that it would be a good idea to burn our food in our cars in the form of ethanol rather than eat it.
7. Our agriculture is a very fossil fuel intensive endeavor. Fertilizers are made from fossil fuels. Farmers use fossil fuel hungry tractors and equipment. The food is grown thousand of miles away from where it is consumed. And lastly, meat production is even more intensive as it takes all that fossil fuel in the form of corn and then feeds it to cattle. So we should not be surprised that fossil fuel prices sky-rocketing results in high food prices.
8. Nuclear — No nuclear power plants are being built because the economics simply are not there. Nuclear power plants come in only one size — extra large. Power companies are trying to adjust their production with the demand. A nuclear power plant is a decade-long bet on a huge increase in demand. This is a very dangerous bet that no sane energy executive will make. California has shown that it is possible to reduce per-capita energy consumption without severe noticeable economic issues. California has been doing this for decades (even before the Enron fiasco). So an energy executive has got to decide today that in 2018 electrical demand is going to be so high that any advances in solar, wind, geothermal + any advances in energy efficiency is going to justify an all-or-nothing bet on a nuclear power plant.
9. Nuclear — any nuclear power plant needs an enriched power source. More nuclear power plants means more incentive for other less stable nations to decide they want their own nuclear power plant — which of course makes it easier for nuclear fuel to fall into the wrong hands. Do you think it is a great idea for nuclear technology to be spread everywhere?
10. Nuclear — There really isn’t that much uranium in the world. And as this article explains most uranium comes from …. other countries. So once again our energy security would be out of our control!

Here is what the “Reason” Foundation says about High Speed Rail:

If you don’t want to read the whole thing:

• a Highway project in Massachusetts ended up cost more money than planned for — as we all know highway projects always cost way too much.
• the US can’t get off its ass and build anything faster than the Acela. (at a time when the French have tested a train that could beat a plane flying the JFK-LAX route)
• the California HSR route is longer than the Acela line and somehow that means the percentage market capture should be smaller — because as we all know people take High-Speed Rail to get to their neighbor’s house or their kitchen.
• Apparently the species of homo sapiens (homo sillius?) that lives in the US is different than the species living in Japan and Europe — so therefore anything that other species does does not apply to homo sillius.
• High-Speed Rail apparently is supposed to compete against Greyhound on a price basis and against planes based on time. I didn’t realize that the business bus traveler was such an important target market.
• All that stuff in the latest Star Trek movie — you know …. those cool transporters that instantly zap you from place to place … are already in place. Those transporters will be used to instantly zap you out of your house, past airport security to your airline seat. Travelers will not have to arrive at the airport 2 hours before their flight. At the other end, the transporters will get travelers from LAX to where they really want to be. This will keep that airline flight of 80 min time competitive with a 150min HSR trip. The bad news is that sometimes TSA regulations result in you arriving unclothed because TSA needs to send your clothes for “extra screening”. Hospital gowns will be provided while you are waiting for your clothes to catch up. Remember the adage to deal with stage fright “Imagine your audience is wearing no clothes?” well now you will not have to imagine…
• Businesses survive by satisfying the “homo consumius” species. politicians survive by satisfying the “homo votius” species. Once again, new subspecies that our high school textbooks sadly have failed to document.
• Bonds are a bad idea. investment is a bad idea.

Top-speed: 574.8 kmh (357.16 mph) for the train (V150) in the video.

Amtrak sucks and the U.S. has no idea what trains could do.

Some perspective: New York to Los Angeles: 2792 miles.

View Larger Map

Time for the V150 - 7h 48min. Remember it does not have to stop for anything (Does not need fuel).

Flight time today - assuming no delays (haha) :

But lets talk about delays. Go here to see what the delays are today. On July 30, 2008 — every single airport was experiencing major delays. There were no exceptions. On my recent flight from San Francisco to Austin, Tx, we were delayed by over 2 hours because of a little bit of ground fog.

Its time to recognize that trains can compete with planes everywhere connected by land (or Chunnel).

Mattel is worth more than GM:

GM’s current market value is smaller than that of Mattel Inc., maker of Matchbox cars, and a 10th of what it was in 2000. A Merrill Lynch analyst said [July 2, 2008] that a GM “bankruptcy is not impossible if the market continues to deteriorate.” Merrill downgraded the stock to “underperform” from “buy.” The price was the lowest since 1954 adjusted for splits.

Irony.

Continuing:

GM may bring the production version of the Chevrolet Beat to the U.S., people familiar with the plan said. The car, which would normally be reserved for markets such as Asia and Latin America, gets as much as 40 miles a gallon, a fuel efficiency topped in the U.S. only by hybrids.

Besides the Beat, GM is weighing a list of options for refocusing its auto lineup on fuel efficiency rather than performance. They include the U.S. introduction of a small pickup popular in Latin America and an expansion of the number of versions of the Volt plug-in electric car, the people said.

GM is also trying to increase production and speed up availability of the successor to the Chevy Cobalt sedan and develop a fuel-efficient alternative to the Cadillac Escalade sport-utility vehicle, they said.

About flippin’ time!

I want to quote practically the entire article it is just so funny!

Bryan Carisone, a heating and air-conditioning contractor in Raritan, N.J., “absolutely loves” his new GMC Denali XL. But in June, one week after he bought it, he pulled into a station on a near-empty tank and watched the total climb higher and higher — to $109.

“It just about killed me,” Mr. Carisone said.

Well that’s love for you … a fickle beast!

For decades, the $100 barrel stood as a hypothetical outlier in doom-and-gloom conversations about future oil prices. And nobody could even imagine an American family paying $100 to fill the tank.

“Nobody”? Oh, I guess you just meant people like DEMOCRAT Rep. John “Denial” Dingell (D-MI) and Former Senator Carl Levin (D-MI). But who knows maybe the automobile industry will accept reality?

But the future is here. Oil passed $100 a barrel in January and now seems headed toward $150 a barrel. Gasoline prices surpassed $4 a gallon on June 8, stalled for a while, and have been rising again in recent days, setting a record Saturday.

Well that’s what happens with the dollar in the toilet. China and India becoming economic powerhouses with lots of cars. Living the American dream!

By late spring, owners of pickups and sport utility vehicles with 30-gallon tanks, like the Cadillac Escalade ESV and Chevrolet Suburban, started paying $100 or more to fill a near-empty tank. As gas prices continue to rise — the national average stood at about $4.10 a gallon Saturday — membership in the triple-digit club is growing. Now, even not-so-gargantuan Toyota Land Cruisers and GMC Yukons can cost $100 to fill up.

But still incredibly oversized.

During the first five months of 2008, about 11 percent of American drivers said they bought 24 gallons or more at their last fill-up, according to a survey of 81,000 drivers by the NPD Group, a market research firm — which at today’s prices would place many of them at or around $100.

Just think what it is going to look like with case at $7/gallon. Oh By the way — In England drivers pay $12-$15/gallon.

For people who love their big vehicles, the pain is acute.

Good. Probably about as acute as the pain the rest of us feel when we get hit by these overstuffed monsters.

Members of the Chevy Avalanche Fan Club of North America prize the Avalanche, a large sport utility vehicle, for its versatility, including a rear cab wall that slides forward for a larger pickup bed or backward for more passenger room.

With the extra pollution option included at no additional charge!

But the Avalanche also has a 31-gallon tank, which would cost $127 to fill at Saturday’s national average price. Even the truck’s most dedicated fans find that galling. David H. Obelcz, who founded the club in 2002 and is still a member of the board, sold his Avalanche because he could not afford gasoline for it.

Reality sucks. Oh I am sorry - might those treehuggers have been right? Who hates CAFE now?
Oh the sweet, sweet, delicious irony!

Thirty members of the fan club’s Arizona chapter used to attend off-roading and other events three times a month. But now that Avalanche owners pay more than $100 per tank, the club is lucky to attract 10 members once every two months, said Eric Tolliver, a chapter leader.

So does that mean you are not going to be tearing up BLM lands as much — I got to love that!

Eric Laugen, a firefighter in Seattle, is administrator of the Chevy Avalanche Fan Club of North America. For a trip to Prudhoe Bay in Alaska, he wanted to drive his truck because it has enough room for his fishing and camera gear, as well as space in the back to sleep. But he rode his motorcycle instead. That means pitching a tent every night, and no fishing.

“I looked at how much gas would cost in the Avalanche. It just doesn’t make sense anymore.”

Did it ever?

Hummer clubs are hurting, too. In Nebraska, Ric Hines of the Omaha Hummer Owner Group — known as Omahog — stopped doing off-road trips this summer and started riding his recumbent bicycle instead.

“Omahog” — what an appropriate name. “Hog” as in “hogging resource for yourself without caring about others”. But all the way to a bicycle — not bad!

Mark R. Price, founder of the Illiana Hummer Club in the Chicago area, owns three Hummer H1s, which get about eight miles per gallon. “A lot of our members won’t travel 70 miles just to support a parade anymore,” Mr. Price said. “People wait for something a little closer.”

Shit man - sell one of the H1-s. Bet the scrap metal value of those would get you at least 2-3 gallons of gas for the other 2 Hummers.

Families that were accustomed to the convenience of sport utility vehicles are having to cut back as well. Colleen Hammond of Chagrin Falls, Ohio, loves packing her three kids and all their soccer gear into her 2000 GMC Yukon XL. But she hates paying $160 to fill the 38.5-gallon tank.

Newsflash-lady. It doesn’t it is still over $100/tank. Why don’t you just get something reasonable with a roof rack?

Last month, she parked the Yukon in her driveway and borrowed her friend’s Toyota Land Cruiser.

Her friend should just make Colleen sell the Yukon XL and buy the Land Cruiser. Driving is more than just gas. Its tires, insurance, oil, and maintenance. Maybe Colleen could follow Angela Eversole or Kelli Stille’s fine example?

Steve Burtch bought a Dodge Ram truck last year, when gas cost $3.75, because he thought gas prices had peaked and would start coming down. Instead, he pumped his first $100 tank in June. “I don’t know how much longer I’m going to be able to keep this up,” said Mr. Burtch, 43, who lives in Marion, Ohio.

ROTFL. Tough it out. Be a man! Who’s the boss? You or the oil companies? Mano a mano in the ring, you can do it! Don’t quit now!

Edmunds.com compiled sales data showing that in the last seven model years, Americans have bought 25.4 million vehicles with tanks 24 gallons or larger — the point at which three figures is now a real possibility. A few big trucks and sport utility vehicles have tanks exceeding 30 gallons.

What is the scrap-metal value of those big boys?

But people who try to pump $100 worth of gas often find that they cannot, since most pumps that take credit cards shut off at $75 to prevent someone with insufficient funds or a stolen credit card from running off with gas. In addition, some older pumps still are not capable of registering triple-digit bills.

And just a few months ago we were talking about older pumps (or should we call them “wallet siphons”), not being able to handle gas priced above $3.99/gallon.

“The bill was $104.98, which was a real shock,” said Mr. Chamberlain, 71, of Marion, Ohio. “I never thought I’d see the day.”

Bet you vote Republican and thought the Iraq War would give you more of the sweet, sweet, light sweet crude-didn’t you?

BioFuels. Do you want to eat or drive?

Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75% — far more than previously estimated — according to a confidential World Bank report obtained by the Guardian. The damning unpublished assessment is based on the most detailed analysis of the crisis so far, carried out by an internationally-respected economist at global financial body.

Considering Americans and their cars - I suspect drive.

An open letter to the people who want to burn gas wantonly:

Do you complain about how you can’t buy the refrigerator you want because of those EnergyStar ratings? Do you feel like you have to setting for a smaller refrigerator? A refrigerator that doesn’t keep your meat and milk as safe?

Why not? Refrigerator manufacturers have been repeatedly forced to increase their energy efficiency. Yet no one seems to miss those sweet 1950’s turbo iceboxes of yesteryear.

All CAFE is is EnergyStar for cars. Just like with refrigerators — the good manufacturers will rise to the challenge and the rest will die.

Detroit had their warning in the late 70’s I lived in Michigan then. 25% unemployment in Flint, MI. No one would take checks. Foreclosures. Crime. A local Great Depression.

Honda, a motorcycle manufacturer, came out with the Honda Civic. My family brought one and drove it south to visit my grandparents. (If you can imagine 5 people in a car the size of a Honda Fit - my yongest sister was on my mom’s lap!)

My grandpa worked as a draftsman for 30 some years at Chrysler. My grandpa said (and this is in the 70’s), “This is the future - Detroit should be building these cars. They are dying and they just don’t know it yet”.

CAFE won’t kill Detroit. CAFE will shake up Detroit and challenge them to improve their product.

Munich, Germany just canceled their Transrapid Maglev airport-to-city-center project. This 37-km (22.2 mi) project was to use the same technology as mebelihotel furnishing in BulgariaShanghai’s maglev train. Like the Shanghai maglev train, the Munich project was to have a top speed over 500 kph (360 mph).

It was canceled because the price had doubled from 1.85 billion euros to 3.4 billion euros. 3.4 billion euros is about $5.1 billion.

As point of comparison, the 21 mile BART-to-San-Jose boondoogle is about $4.7+ billion. BART trains rattle and shake at about 70 mph. (The project is really 21 miles because 5 miles are in Alameda County to get to the Alameda/Santa Clara border).

Which leaves me wondering.. WTF are we doing with extending BART to anywhere!??

Google is very proud of their solar panel project:

Google has installed over 90% of the 9,212 solar panels that comprise the 1,600 kilowatt project. Panels cover the rooftops of eight buildings and two newly constructed solar carports at the Googleplex.

This installation is projected to produce enough electricity for approximately 1,000 California homes or 30% of Google’s peak electricity demand in our solar powered buildings at our Mountain View, CA headquarters.

Yawn. Sure its better than nothing. But its significance? Debatable.

First of all, California’s energy mix from 2006:

This mix shows that California uses fossil fuels to produce:

(coal) 15.7% + (natural gas) 41.5% = 57.2%

of our electricity. So of Google’s nominal 1600kw solar installation only ~897.6 kw (slight deduction because solar power is variable during the day) displaces a greenhouse-gas-producing energy source. But lets say that Google got all of its fossil fuel electricity from coal. Using this information:

Now lets compare shall we?

Gallon of gas is about 6lbs and it is mostly carbon. For example, one sample compound in gasoline is octane which is C8H18. So carbon
(atomic weight 6 ) when burned combines with 2 oxygen atoms (atomic weight 8 ) resulting in CO2 (atomic weight 22 ). Therefore each gallon of gas when burned produces 3 2/3 its weight in CO2 or 22 pounds of CO2.

90.9 gallons of gas = 1 ton (2000 lbs)

6642.24 (google solar power savings) * 90.9 gallons of gas = 603780 gallons of gas

So what is this equivalent to?

Well over the next few years Google is planning on adding 3,000+ people at their Mountain View Headquarters. So those solar panels just about cover 1610 Google employees driving their 40mpg Prius 15,000 miles a year to get to work.

The math:

250 work days * 30 miles one-way * 2 = 15000 miles

This math reflects the reality of the bay area. 50% of the Bay Area’s greenhouse gas come from transportation. That you and me driving to work. By ourselves.

So if Google really wanted to impact the climate change problem they would:

Make it possible for employees to live closer to their job

This means satellite offices. Don’t expand in Mountain View. Mountain View refuses to build more housing because Mountain View City Council is not serious about Climate Change. If Google is serious about Climate Change, Google should build its offices close to where its employees can find housing. (Either that or have a serious heart-to-heart with certain MV politicos who like to pretend to be environmentalists when it is not too inconvenient.)

If Google enabling their employees to walk to work or take mass transit (and no the Google buses only partially count), this would do far more than those solar panels.

Provide free transportation during lunch hour from Google to local cities

Out of the 15,000 employees at the Googleplex. Lets say 3,000 every day decide that they don’t want to eat the cafeteria food. Figuring 3 people/car and half the cars go to Palo Alto (6 miles * 2 * 250 work days * 500 cars = 1500000mi. 37500 gallons with a Prius or 412.5 tons of CO2 ) and half go to Mountain View. (2.7 miles * 2 * 250 work days * 500 cars = 675000 miles. 16875 gallons with a Prius or 185.625 tons of CO2 ). Or in other words, 10%30% (see update at bottom) of the savings from the solar panels!

Naturally the numbers go down the more employees that love the cafeteria food. But it goes up for those going to lunch by themselves or in something less fuel-efficient.

Pay people not to drive

Reduce the parking and pay people not to drive to work. This is called Parking Cashout:

Cashing out reduced total vehicle emissions for commuting by 12 percent, with a range from 5 to 24 percent. To view the report summary (abstract) or to download a copy of the report

For Google, lets assume that 33% of the employees take the Google bus, public transit or telecommute. That leaves about 10,000 people driving 150,000,000 total miles each year to get to Google. Because they all drive 40mpg Prius, they ‘only’ burn 3,750,000 gallons of gas and ‘only’ produce 41250 tons of CO2. If Google could incentivize only 5% of those 10,000 employees to take public transit or telecommute, Google would stop 2062.5 tons/year of CO2 from being produced or about 30% 90% (see update at bottom) of the savings from the solar panels.

Inform the public

Google Maps is great. I use it all the time. Google added a public transit link. But they should really go a lot farther.

1. Determine the quickest route via car and via public transit. If public transit is within 10% of driving then display the public transit option preferentially.
2. When displaying the distance calculate and display the fuel cost of the trip (assume ~18 mpg). Compare the cost to the cost of public transit.
3. If public transit option includes, a bit of walking calculate how much calories would be burned. Display this in terms of time on a stairmaster at the gym. If trip involves hills, include that in the calorie consumption.
4. Trip planner: Allow a user to enter multiple errand destinations. Calculate the shortest trip to handle the errands. If destinations are within a mile of each other, assume the person is walking. (Display the calories burned as above).
5. Commute planner: Allow a user to enter their home address and their work address.
   • Calculate the total cost of the commute for the whole year.
   • Total numbers of miles driven.
   • Total cost of the gas consumed.
   • Total number of hours (in terms of days) that the person is driving.
   • Time of day that they would leave their house and time that they would get home
   • Repeat the calculation for the public transit option
   • Allow side-by-side comparisons with two separate work destinations for case when a person has two different job offers.
6. Home buying: Allow a user to enter their work address and multiple home addresses. Do the above calculations as above.
7. If a user is driving to a destination that has a parking fee, include the parking fee in the cost of driving.

I challenge Google to really get serious about global warming.

[Update: Google's promo-video claims:

So these panels are 2/3ths less significant. Please divide by 3 and multiple by 3 where appropriate above)]

My response to Shannon’s thinking about buying a car:

Congratulations saving so much money by avoiding car ownership for so long.

Here is my feedback:

• Forget the concept of a car retaining its “value”. A car is a liability not an asset. If a car runs and operates it has value. The only time the car’s “value” will matter is if it gets totaled in an accident.
• Don’t bother buying a new car. Its a stupid waste of money. Let the other poor sucker buy the shiny new object. Unless you are trying to impress some bimbo girlfriend, forget it.
• Forget the used car guides, they talk about general trends - not your specific car.
• Figure out how much money you want to flush down the car toilet. Double that number (maintenance, license, etc.) While you are figuring out what you want to buy set that money aside to make sure you can really do without it (the money that is).
• How many times can you rent a car with the above cash? Do you still need that car?

Now that you have decided that you really must discard your cash this way. Buy your car this way:

• Find out what your minimum monthly payment would be buying a car from a dealership. (Lets say $400/month)
• Decide what your hassle tolerance is. Your hassle tolerance is how long in months the car must run with only oil changes or other routine maintenance before you get pissed off with it. Note this is a minimum - not a as-long-as-possible value. Lets say 10 months - so after 10 months you wake up and discover that the car had been crushed by a semi you wouldn’t care.
• Hassle-tolerance * monthly payment = maximum to spend. Yes - maximum. In our example, that is 10*$400 = $4000. If you don’t mind buying a new-to-you car every 10 months, then if the car lasts 20 months - the last 10 months were ‘free’
• Look on craigslist. Buy the third car that passes a basic driving test and an inspection by a trusted mechanic (or at least a mechanic that you can beat the shit out of if he screws up). Why the third car? Because you should give yourself the opportunity to get a good deal but you should not agonize and ditter yourself into indecision. If you can’t decide by the third car then you don’t really need a car - its not urgent. Update: Note that I am not saying the third car period - but rather the third car in decent shape where “decent shape” = able to run at highway speeds and your mechanic doesn’t ask if he can share in the life insurance payout. The car is decent if it is ugly or has cigarette burns in the seats.
• Buy a car that you would never want to both getting comprehensive insurance on. If you don’t care if the car is destroyed in a collision, stolen, explodes, etc. — then you will not care if it is a ‘lemon’. Even a lemon will likely last ~10 months.

As a result, you will buy a car that:

• you will not have an emotional attachment to — save emotional attachments for people not things.
• you will be indifferent to. You will not wash the car (saving money, time and clean water).
• you will not waste time cleaning the car.
• will not be hard to ditch when confronted with a huge repair bill.
• you will be able to sell for about what you paid for it - even if it doesn’t run at all you will be able to convert it to a tax deduction.
• drive it into the ground.

As background, my wife and I between the 2 of us have owned 5 cars: 1 new, 4 used. We never paid more than $4000 for a used car (or van). The car that has lasted the longest is a 1991 Ford Festiva - which gets over 30mpg. We paid $1500 for that car. The other vehicle we own is a 1994 Dodge Caravan - $4000. We have never ended up with a lemon. We have spent a total during our entire combined life span of >80 man-years on vehicle purchases is about ~$35,000. (I think that might be too high actually).