Archive for May, 2008

the “anti seth godin” approach to selling products

Tuesday, May 13th, 2008

Lightspeed venture partners comments that 11-20% of electronic gear is returned.

The breakdown:

68% “no trouble found” — customer found the product confusing
27% buyer’s remorse — too expensive or spouse didn’t like it
5% defective

Sony’s solution? Make the product easier? Find out how to make the product better? Nope! Make the product harder to return!

My mom is a perfect example of a customer who finds many things electronic too confusing. Rather than do the right thing of asking customers for feedback, Sony takes the easy way out and screws the soon-to-be-former customers.

But it seems like Sony is the exception. In the original article, the other companies discussed have a much more enlightened approach.

Not a fun day in China

Monday, May 12th, 2008

1 earthquake + 28 major aftershocks! (as of Tue May 13 2:00:03 UTC 2008)
1 earthquake + 23 major aftershocks! (as of May 12, 2008 at 20:30 UTC)

  MAG UTC DATE-TIME
y/m/d h:m:s
LAT
deg
LON
deg
DEPTH
km
 Region
MAP  5.3   2008/05/12 23:54:47    31.307    103.576  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.4   2008/05/12 23:46:19    31.319    103.501  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.7   2008/05/12 21:08:16    31.623    103.424  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.8   2008/05/12 20:51:27    32.312    104.958  10.0   SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP  5.3   2008/05/12 20:45:32    31.759    104.420  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.8   2008/05/12 20:08:52    31.421    103.815  32.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.4   2008/05/12 18:55:21    32.223    104.850  10.0   SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 17:54:33    31.093    103.498  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.8   2008/05/12 17:52:24    31.886    104.451  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.9   2008/05/12 17:03:11    31.133    103.586  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 15:28:54    31.129    103.391  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 15:05:31    31.258    103.700  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 14:46:08    32.709    105.617  10.0   SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 14:15:26    32.120    104.612  10.0   SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP  4.9   2008/05/12 13:40:55    31.023    103.526  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.9   2008/05/12 12:15:42    31.898    104.623  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.8   2008/05/12 11:11:02    31.249    103.693  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 10:23:40    30.992    103.413  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.5   2008/05/12 09:42:25    31.519    104.116  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  4.9   2008/05/12 09:23:35    32.142    104.894  10.0   SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP  5.1   2008/05/12 09:07:01    31.255    103.788  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.0   2008/05/12 08:47:25    32.215    105.029  10.0   SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA
MAP  4.9   2008/05/12 08:26:13    31.399    103.957  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.2   2008/05/12 08:21:41    31.542    104.085  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.2   2008/05/12 08:10:59    31.225    103.574  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.4   2008/05/12 07:34:43    31.278    103.799  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  5.7   2008/05/12 06:54:18    31.155    103.826  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  6.0   2008/05/12 06:43:15    31.225    103.761  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA
MAP  7.9   2008/05/12 06:28:01    31.099    103.279  10.0   EASTERN SICHUAN, CHINA

Maglev is cheaper than BART

Sunday, May 11th, 2008

Munich, Germany just canceled their Transrapid Maglev airport-to-city-center project. This 37-km (22.2 mi) project was to use the same technology as mebelihotel furnishing in BulgariaShanghai’s maglev train. Like the Shanghai maglev train, the Munich project was to have a top speed over 500 kph (360 mph).

It was canceled because the price had doubled from 1.85 billion euros to 3.4 billion euros. 3.4 billion euros is about $5.1 billion.

As point of comparison, the 21 mile BART-to-San-Jose boondoogle is about $4.7+ billion. BART trains rattle and shake at about 70 mph. (The project is really 21 miles because 5 miles are in Alameda County to get to the Alameda/Santa Clara border).

Which leaves me wondering.. WTF are we doing with extending BART to anywhere!??

Dual class stock structure

Friday, May 9th, 2008

Marc Andressen was praising dual-class stock structures in light of the Microsoft-Yahoo food fight. Rather than a dual class structure that is explicitly assigned to a certain stock certificate, I prefer AFLAC’s variation.

AFLAC has an interesting variation on this. They have a dual class structure but it is based on how long the stock has been owned in your name. If you have held the a share for 4 years in your name (i.e. not your stock broker’s name like is usually the case) then that share has 10x the vote as a share that has been held for less than that time. Stock plan document (item 18 on page 12)

This is the perfect poison pill defense. A “short term” speculator would have to hold the shares for 4 years in order to have a chance at a hostile takeover. A shareholder who has held the shares for 4 years clearly is invested in the company as a company not just a speculation vehicle.

At the same time this is extremely democratic, anyone could get the class B status by simply being a buy-and-hold investor.

Website performance tips

Friday, May 9th, 2008

Yahoo website performance tips

We are all cyborgs

Thursday, May 8th, 2008

My daughter, RM, is convinced that her heart goes “beep, beep, beep”.

if sun would just start selling solutions

Thursday, May 8th, 2008

So Sun keeps on trying to sell me boxes. I don’t need OpenSolaris, I need solutions! What is the difference? OpenSolaris requires someone who knows how to configure it, manage it, secure it, and adjust it for performance. But newsflash here! I am not a system admin. I am not a dba. And wait for it… I don’t want to be. I am a java developer and all I want for Christmas is a cheap ‘hobbyist’ hosting solution. Such a system will be perfectly adequate until Amplafi has the traffic to justify a more ’serious’ solution.

Today I can get:

  • PHP
  • (some) webserver to deliver the content
  • MySQL
  • Zero DBA experience required.
  • Zero SysAdmin Knowledge needed(you don’t get a commandline anyhow)
  • A just-upload-and-run-experience
  • ~$10/month

Why can’t Sun deliver the same thing only running Java 1.6?

Why is that a hosted java application costs a minimum of $80/month? This is so wrong.

Where are you wasting your cognitive surplus?

Wednesday, May 7th, 2008

She heard this story and she shook her head and said, “Where do people find the time?” That was her question. And I just kind of snapped. And I said, “No one who works in TV gets to ask that question. You know where the time comes from. It comes from the cognitive surplus you’ve been masking for 50 years.”

So how big is that surplus? So if you take Wikipedia as a kind of unit, all of Wikipedia, the whole project–every page, every edit, every talk page, every line of code, in every language that Wikipedia exists in–that represents something like the cumulation of 100 million hours of human thought. I worked this out with Martin Wattenberg at IBM; it’s a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but it’s the right order of magnitude, about 100 million hours of thought.

And television watching? Two hundred billion hours, in the U.S. alone, every year. Put another way, now that we have a unit, that’s 2,000 Wikipedia projects a year spent watching television. Or put still another way, in the U.S., we spend 100 million hours every weekend, just watching the ads. This is a pretty big surplus. People asking, “Where do they find the time?” when they’re looking at things like Wikipedia don’t understand how tiny that entire project is, as a carve-out of this asset that’s finally being dragged into what Tim calls an architecture of participation.

Now, the interesting thing about a surplus like that is that society doesn’t know what to do with it at first–hence the gin, hence the sitcoms. Because if people knew what to do with a surplus with reference to the existing social institutions, then it wouldn’t be a surplus, would it? It’s precisely when no one has any idea how to deploy something that people have to start experimenting with it, in order for the surplus to get integrated, and the course of that integration can transform society (…)

So that’s the answer to the question, “Where do they find the time?” Or, rather, that’s the numerical answer. But beneath that question was another thought, this one not a question but an observation. In this same conversation with the TV producer I was talking about World of Warcraft guilds, and as I was talking, I could sort of see what she was thinking: “Losers. Grown men sitting in their basement pretending to be elves.”

At least they’re doing something.

Did you ever see that episode of Gilligan’s Island where they almost get off the island and then Gilligan messes up and then they don’t? I saw that one. I saw that one a lot when I was growing up. And every half-hour that I watched that was a half an hour I wasn’t posting at my blog or editing Wikipedia or contributing to a mailing list. Now I had an ironclad excuse for not doing those things, which is none of those things existed then. I was forced into the channel of media the way it was because it was the only option. Now it’s not, and that’s the big surprise. However lousy it is to sit in your basement and pretend to be an elf, I can tell you from personal experience it’s worse to sit in your basement and try to figure if Ginger or Mary Ann is cuter.

And I’m willing to raise that to a general principle. It’s better to do something than to do nothing. Even lolcats, even cute pictures of kittens made even cuter with the addition of cute captions, hold out an invitation to participation. When you see a lolcat, one of the things it says to the viewer is, “If you have some sans-serif fonts on your computer, you can play this game, too.” And that’s message–I can do that, too–is a big change.(…)

And this is the other thing about the size of the cognitive surplus we’re talking about. It’s so large that even a small change could have huge ramifications. Let’s say that everything stays 99 percent the same, that people watch 99 percent as much television as they used to, but 1 percent of that is carved out for producing and for sharing. The Internet-connected population watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. That’s about five times the size of the annual U.S. consumption. One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of participation.

I think that’s going to be a big deal. Don’t you?

I was there at web 2.0 but I tend to bail on keynotes. Hat tip to open left.

Code Review #6 – ‘Too smart’ aka scared of being dumb

Tuesday, May 6th, 2008

One of the biggest failing junior developers have is that they are too ’smart’. ‘Too smart’??? How can someone be ‘too smart’? Actually pretty easily.

‘Too smart’ is when the person spent hours looking at a problem. And the next day she/he

  • realizes the specs would require violating the speed-of-light;
  • or has the product manager come up to them and say, “Oh yeah, there was a typo in the spec and it should have said ‘… NOT …’”;
  • or the product manager/tech lead (when asked) says, “that’s not what I meant”;
  • or the product manager/tech lead (when asked) says, “I didn’t consider that case” (or don’t worry about that case now);
  • or is told by a fellow developer, “oh I ran into that problem last week and on the 3rd page of the documentation, a workaround solution to that problem is described.”;
  • or discovers they were working on an old version of the code and upgrading to the latest version of code or libraries, solves the problem;
  • or finally another developer looks at the problem and points out a simple condition that has been reversed;
  • or…

In all cases, the person (doesn’t have to be a developer) violated the 20-minute rule. Quite simply the 20-minute rule says

“If you are stuck for more than 20 minutes, and you are no closer to understanding the source of the problem – then ask for help”

Yes, it could be something ’stupid’ but it could also be something else. Sometimes you will be told to keep on looking because the person in question wants you to learn something. But sometimes there is a fundamental misunderstanding.

So to make sure that you are not asking for help too easily there is the corollary to the 20-minute rule, the 10-minute review rule.

Spend 10 minutes reviewing, how you got to this situation.

  • Describe why the previous code is written the way it was. Notice this is not a ‘what’ question. So do not answer ‘what the previous code was doing?’ Answer why did the previous developer did the code this way – do you know how the code is being used? Are you breaking those assumptions?
  • Describe why the previous code is now incorrect. List the changed assumptions or requirements.
  • Describe what your solution is going to accomplish.
  • Describe why your solution is the minimal solution.
  • Describe why your solution is the correct choice.
  • Describe the single problem that if solved would make your solution work correctly.

At this point, one of these choices is the path that needs to be taken:

  • Fundamental misunderstanding about existing code. You realized your initial assumptions were wrong and that your solution is the wrong path. Solution: STOP and look at reevaluate problem discarding old assumptions.
  • Missing information. The problem was not specified clearly enough. There are multiple possible problems that are being asked to be solved. Solution: get clarification. Do not proceed until the problem has been clarified.
  • Reinventing wheel. Has this problem already been solved somewhere else in the code? If so, refactor so the already created/tested solution can be used.
  • Rathole. A simple problem is becoming more and more complex. Are you fixing the problem of the problem of the problem that you started off solving? Are you making changes all over the place? If you are in a rathole, this is a sure sign of Doing-the-wrong-thing. Solution: STOP!
  • I don’t know If you don’t know, then you need to ask for help. Solution: Swallow pride and ask for help.

if google was really serious about climate change

Thursday, May 1st, 2008

Google is very proud of their solar panel project:

Google has installed over 90% of the 9,212 solar panels that comprise the 1,600 kilowatt project. Panels cover the rooftops of eight buildings and two newly constructed solar carports at the Googleplex.

This installation is projected to produce enough electricity for approximately 1,000 California homes or 30% of Google’s peak electricity demand in our solar powered buildings at our Mountain View, CA headquarters.

Yawn. Sure its better than nothing. But its significance? Debatable.

First of all, California’s energy mix from 2006:

California Gross System Power for 2006
In Gigawatt-Hours (GWh)

Fuel Type

In-State

NW Imports

SW Imports

GSP

GSP Percentage

Coal

17,573

5,467

23,195

46,235

15.7%

Large Hydro

43,088

10,608

2,343

56,039

19.0%

Natural Gas

106,968

2,051

13,207

122,226

41.5%

Nuclear

31,959

556

5,635

38,150

12.9%

Renewables

30,514

1,122

579

32,215

10.9%

TOTAL

230,102

19,804

44,959

294,865

100.0%

This mix shows that California uses fossil fuels to produce:

(coal) 15.7% + (natural gas) 41.5% = 57.2%

of our electricity. So of Google’s nominal 1600kw solar installation only ~897.6 kw (slight deduction because solar power is variable during the day) displaces a greenhouse-gas-producing energy source. But lets say that Google got all of its fossil fuel electricity from coal. Using this information:

500 mw coal plant = 3700000 CO2 tons/year
3700000 tons/year = 7400tons/mw/yr.
For Google: 7400*0.8976 mw displaced = 6642.24 tons/year

Now lets compare shall we?

Gallon of gas is about 6lbs and it is mostly carbon. For example, one sample compound in gasoline is octane which is C8H18. So carbon
(atomic weight 6 ) when burned combines with 2 oxygen atoms (atomic weight 8 ) resulting in CO2 (atomic weight 22 ). Therefore each gallon of gas when burned produces 3 2/3 its weight in CO2 or 22 pounds of CO2.

90.9 gallons of gas = 1 ton (2000 lbs)

6642.24 (google solar power savings) * 90.9 gallons of gas = 603780 gallons of gas

So what is this equivalent to?

Well over the next few years Google is planning on adding 3,000+ people at their Mountain View Headquarters. So those solar panels just about cover 1610 Google employees driving their 40mpg Prius 15,000 miles a year to get to work.

The math:

250 work days * 30 miles one-way * 2 = 15000 miles

This math reflects the reality of the bay area. 50% of the Bay Area’s greenhouse gas come from transportation. That you and me driving to work. By ourselves.

So if Google really wanted to impact the climate change problem they would:

Make it possible for employees to live closer to their job

This means satellite offices. Don’t expand in Mountain View. Mountain View refuses to build more housing because Mountain View City Council is not serious about Climate Change. If Google is serious about Climate Change, Google should build its offices close to where its employees can find housing. (Either that or have a serious heart-to-heart with certain MV politicos who like to pretend to be environmentalists when it is not too inconvenient.)

If Google enabling their employees to walk to work or take mass transit (and no the Google buses only partially count), this would do far more than those solar panels.

Provide free transportation during lunch hour from Google to local cities

Out of the 15,000 employees at the Googleplex. Lets say 3,000 every day decide that they don’t want to eat the cafeteria food. Figuring 3 people/car and half the cars go to Palo Alto (6 miles * 2 * 250 work days * 500 cars = 1500000mi. 37500 gallons with a Prius or 412.5 tons of CO2 ) and half go to Mountain View. (2.7 miles * 2 * 250 work days * 500 cars = 675000 miles. 16875 gallons with a Prius or 185.625 tons of CO2 ). Or in other words, 10%30% (see update at bottom) of the savings from the solar panels!

Naturally the numbers go down the more employees that love the cafeteria food. But it goes up for those going to lunch by themselves or in something less fuel-efficient.

Pay people not to drive

Reduce the parking and pay people not to drive to work. This is called Parking Cashout:

Cashing out reduced total vehicle emissions for commuting by 12 percent, with a range from 5 to 24 percent. To view the report summary (abstract) or to download a copy of the report

For Google, lets assume that 33% of the employees take the Google bus, public transit or telecommute. That leaves about 10,000 people driving 150,000,000 total miles each year to get to Google. Because they all drive 40mpg Prius, they ‘only’ burn 3,750,000 gallons of gas and ‘only’ produce 41250 tons of CO2. If Google could incentivize only 5% of those 10,000 employees to take public transit or telecommute, Google would stop 2062.5 tons/year of CO2 from being produced or about 30% 90% (see update at bottom) of the savings from the solar panels.

Inform the public

Google Maps is great. I use it all the time. Google added a public transit link. But they should really go a lot farther.

  1. Determine the quickest route via car and via public transit. If public transit is within 10% of driving then display the public transit option preferentially.
  2. When displaying the distance calculate and display the fuel cost of the trip (assume ~18 mpg). Compare the cost to the cost of public transit.
  3. If public transit option includes, a bit of walking calculate how much calories would be burned. Display this in terms of time on a stairmaster at the gym. If trip involves hills, include that in the calorie consumption.
  4. Trip planner: Allow a user to enter multiple errand destinations. Calculate the shortest trip to handle the errands. If destinations are within a mile of each other, assume the person is walking. (Display the calories burned as above).
  5. Commute planner: Allow a user to enter their home address and their work address.
    • Calculate the total cost of the commute for the whole year.
    • Total numbers of miles driven.
    • Total cost of the gas consumed.
    • Total number of hours (in terms of days) that the person is driving.
    • Time of day that they would leave their house and time that they would get home
    • Repeat the calculation for the public transit option
    • Allow side-by-side comparisons with two separate work destinations for case when a person has two different job offers.
  6. Home buying: Allow a user to enter their work address and multiple home addresses. Do the above calculations as above.
  7. If a user is driving to a destination that has a parking fee, include the parking fee in the cost of driving.

I challenge Google to really get serious about global warming.

[Update: Google's promo-video claims:

17,247 equivalent gallons of gas/yr
1818.8 tons of CO2/yr savings

So these panels are 2/3ths less significant. Please divide by 3 and multiple by 3 where appropriate above)]